Bonus Wagering & Value Calculator

A casino bonus always looks generous in the banner — 100% up to NZ$200 sounds like free money. The catch lives in the small print: the wagering requirement, which is how many times you have to bet the bonus (or deposit plus bonus) before any winnings are yours to withdraw. This calculator does the maths the marketing won't. Enter the offer, pick the game you'd actually play, and it simulates the whole bonus journey thousands of times to estimate your expected value, your chance of clearing the requirement, and the spread of likely results.

The goal isn't to talk you into or out of any bonus. It's to give you a clear-eyed view before you tick the box, so you know whether you're chasing real value or just longer odds with extra steps.

Three numbers do the heavy lifting. Expected value (EV) is the average amount you'd walk away with across thousands of simulated runs — if it's positive, the offer tilts slightly in your favour on average; if it's negative, it costs you on average. Chance of clearing the wagering is the percentage of simulated runs where you completed the full turnover before busting your balance. The range of outcomes shows you the lucky, middling, and unlucky scenarios side by side — because the average almost never matches what happens in a single session. A positive EV with a low clear rate, for instance, means a few big wins carry the average while most attempts fizzle out. Read all three together.

Why the wagering requirement decides everything

The headline figure barely matters; the multiplier attached to it does. A NZ$100 bonus at 20x wagering means you must place NZ$2,000 in bets. The same bonus at 40x means NZ$4,000. Every additional turn of your money gives the house edge another bite, so a higher multiplier quietly erodes the value of an otherwise identical offer.

It also matters whether the requirement applies to the bonus only or to your deposit plus bonus. The second is far steeper: a 30x requirement on deposit-plus-bonus for a NZ$100 + NZ$100 deal means NZ$6,000 in turnover, not NZ$3,000. Always check which basis the casino uses — our calculator lets you switch between the two so you can see the difference in black and white.

Game choice and contribution rates

Not every game chips away at your wagering at the same rate. Pokies (slots) usually contribute 100%, so every dollar wagered counts in full. Table games such as blackjack and roulette often contribute only 10% — or are excluded entirely — because their low house edge would make bonuses too easy to beat. That means NZ$10 wagered on blackjack might count as just NZ$1 toward your requirement.

This creates a genuine trade-off. Pokies clear the wagering fastest but carry a higher house edge, so they cost more per round on average. Low-edge table games are cheaper per round but, at a 10% contribution, you have to bet ten times as much to clear the same requirement. The calculator bakes each game's contribution rate and house edge into the simulation, so you're comparing the real net effect rather than guessing.

How games count toward wagering

Wagering requirements rarely treat every game equally — here's a typical contribution table, though you should always confirm the exact rates in your casino's bonus terms.

Bonus types explained

• Cashable: Both the bonus and any winnings can be withdrawn once you've met the wagering requirement.
• Sticky: The bonus itself never withdraws — it's playing money only; you can keep the winnings it generates after wagering, but the bonus amount is removed at cashout.
• Free spins: A set number of pokie spins at a fixed value; winnings are usually paid as bonus funds with their own wagering attached.
• Cashback: A portion of your net losses returned over a period, often with low or no wagering — generally the most player-friendly offer.

Worked example: a NZ$100 match at 35x

Say you deposit NZ$100 and claim a 100% match up to NZ$100, giving you NZ$200 to play with. The wagering is 35x the bonus, applied to the bonus only — so you need NZ$100 × 35 = NZ$3,500 in turnover. You plan to play a pokie with a 96% RTP (a 4% house edge) that contributes 100%, betting NZ$1 a spin.

Across 3,500 spins at NZ$1, the average house edge predicts you'd lose roughly NZ$140 of turnover to the edge over the full requirement. Because you started with NZ$200, the simulation shows most runs finishing with the bonus cleared but a modest balance left over — a typical result around NZ$60–80, an expected value of roughly +NZ$50 to +NZ$60 above your deposit, and a clear rate near 70–75%. The unlucky runs bust before clearing; the lucky ones finish well over NZ$150. The takeaway: this offer has positive expected value, but a meaningful minority of attempts still end empty — which is exactly why the range matters as much as the average.

Glossary

RTP

Return to player — the percentage of all wagered money a game pays back over the very long run; a 96% RTP returns NZ$96 per NZ$100 staked on average.

House edge

The casino's built-in mathematical margin on each bet, equal to 100% minus the RTP; a 96% RTP means a 4% house edge.

Volatility

How a game delivers its returns — low volatility means frequent small wins, high volatility means rare but larger wins and a bumpier ride.

Wagering requirement

The number of times you must bet a bonus (or deposit plus bonus) before winnings can be withdrawn, shown as a multiplier like 35x.

Expected value (EV)

The average outcome of a bet or bonus across thousands of repetitions — a guide to the long-run average, not a prediction for any single session.